Real estate: fiscal conservatism vs ponzi neoliberalism

Evan Siddal to resign

This video is intended to give viewers an understanding of the economic
ideas behind Canada's potential housing bubble. This video also explains
why Siddal, President and CEO of the CMHC, was likely pushed from his post.

Discusses Mark Carney, Evan Siddal, Jim Flaherty, Chrystia Freeland.



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Informative Real Estate Articles

How the pandemic 'lit the fire' of a red-hot real estate market inside the Atlantic bubble
(FP - Victor Ferreira)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues

“It’s the first time in a long time where I’ve seen listings go at asking price or over asking price,” he said, noting the last time he experienced a market like this was in the early 2000s. “I was just speaking to another agent about this: Houses are up for 48 hours and they’re gone.”

Mortgage rates may rise as Bank of Canada ends emergency pandemic program
(FP - Liz Beddall)  - Risk Management Issues
“For those thinking rates could drop to below 1%, this move signals that that may not happen anytime soon,” says Jesse Abrams, founder and CEO of the online mortgage brokerage Homewise.
New real estate players try to gain foothold in Canada’s hot market
( G&M - Rachelle Younglai)  - Competitive Issues

New real estate players are trying to grab a piece of Canada’s booming real estate market, taking on traditional brokerages in the latest battle for a share of the lucrative business.

RBC Forecasts Canadian Mortgage Defaults Will Start Rising Next Year
(Better Dwelling - Stephen Punwasi)  - Risk Management Issues
Canadian real estate markets aren’t yet in the clear, despite the surge in buying activity. RBC Capital Markets, in a note to institutional clients, is forecasting mortgage defaults won’t rise until the second half of 2021. Analysts authoring the report said a combination of payment deferrals and government support, “kicked the can down the road.”
Downtown Montreal merchants need tax relief, now
( G&M - KONRAD YAKABUSKI)  - Risk Management Issues

The opening of Japanese retailer Uniqlo’s first Quebec store last week had the markings of a major happening in downtown Montreal, as hundreds of people lined up for hours outside the Eaton Centre location for chance to shop at the trendy chain’s largest Canadian outlet. For most in the crowd, it marked their first trip downtown in months.

Brookfield buys rest of mortgage insurer Genworth
( CBC - CP)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
Brookfield Business Partners LP has signed a deal to buy the remaining interest in Genworth MI Canada Inc. that it does not already own in an offer that values the company at about $3.8 billion.
A fresh wave of layoffs is pushing Albertans to the edge — and in danger of losing their homes
(FP - Geoffrey Morgan)  - Risk Management Issues
High unemployment has led to a higher rate of mortgage deferrals and mortgages in arrears in Alberta than elsewhere in the country. Economists say that as the mortgage deferral grace period is coming to an end, and support programs such as the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) wrap up, the next few months could potentially lead to more turmoil in the province’s housing market.
Cracks in real estate market fail to rattle Canada’s big banks
(FP - Kevin Orland, Ari Altstedter)  - Attitude and Preference Issues
A number of forecasters, including Moody’s Corp., UBS Group AG and the country’s top housing regulator, are predicting a sharp correction over the next year. Canada’s largest banks aren’t worried: on average, the six largest lenders see price declines of about 3 per cent over the next 12 months, according to forecasts they use to determine potential credit losses. Bank of Montreal sees no change at all in the nation’s average housing price.
(UofT - Dr. R.A. Walks)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues
This article seeks to critically examine the public policy response to the global financial crisis in the core of the developed world, and to understand the likely implications of this set of policy responses for the future trajectory of urban social crises.
( - Mark Sibthorpe)  - Risk Management Issues
Yesterday, Genworth had its Q4 2014 earnings call. Genworth own about 30% of the mortgage default insurance in Canada. Not surprisingly, the earnings call became focussed on Alberta; and for good reason, with 20% of its outstanding insured mortgage balance in Alberta, sensitivity to the oil shock and how Genworth plan to manage related risks were discussed in detail.
A Final Conversation with CMHC’s Evan Siddall and MPC’s Paul Taylor
(Mortgage Broker News - J.P. Boutros)  - Attitude and Preference Issues
On Tuesday, CMHC President and CEO Evan Siddall joined MPC President and CEO Paul Taylor for what was billed as their final public conversation before Siddall’s departure at the end of 2020, which has proven to be a very challenging year.
Why Canada's anti-money laundering system has failed so badly
(FP - Diane Francis)  - Evolving Legislative/Regulatory Issues
Any OSFI or RCMP intelligence just disappears into FINTRAC, which does not reciprocate, said Choules-Burbidge. That’s because it’s a useless appendage that reports to the Ministry of Finance. Worse, its director is a cabinet appointee who has no experience with financial crimes.
Falling home prices, unemployment to upset banks' balance sheets – analyst
(Mortgage Broker News - Ephram Vecina)  - Risk Management Issues
With the looming threat of major home-price drops, a housing market correction accompanied by mounting unemployment will likely take a significant chunk off Canadian banks’ bottom lines, according to Barclays Plc. analyst John Aiken.
Federal government releases more details of five-year housing initiative
(Mortgage Broker News - Ephram Vecina)  - Public Policy Issues
The first round, dubbed the Data Driven phase, will attempt to address gaps in housing data “through technology or methodology-based solutions to improve data collection, sharing, analysis and integration, thus improving decision-making on housing supply,” the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation said late last week.
Assignment sales are rising in Toronto, as investors who bought pre-construction condos try to get out of their deals
( G&M - Rachelle Younglai)  - Financial Services Industry Structural Issues

Real estate investors are increasingly trying to get out of closing on their newly built condos in the Toronto region, as rents plummet and banks toughen borrowing qualifications for rental properties.

Real Estate Investors Want to Know What Cities Are Doing About Climate Risks
( Bloomberg - Jameelah D Robinson)  - Risk Management Issues

After an increase in wildfires, storms and other natural disasters, many cities have begun both short and long-term planning for infrastructure that will blunt the effects of climate change. Their current property values could be at stake as well. 

Real estate investors and developers are increasingly considering climate risk factors when deciding where to buy or build, according to a report this month from the Urban Land Institute, an organization that promotes the responsible use of land. This has also meant looking at how prepared local governments are to face such events, according to the study, which was conducted with Heitman Institutional Realty Partners.  The researchers interviewed firms including BlackRock Inc., CBRE Global Investors, Credit Suisse Group AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Moody’s Corp. and Morgan Stanley on how they are considering climate risk. 
Investors “are looking beyond the individual asset and assessing a city’s preparedness for climate change, but the models and metrics they need are still in their infancy,” ULI Chief Executive Officer Ed Walter said in a statement.
Canada’s House Prices Are Soaring Because Reality Doesn’t Matter Anymore To Things Like That
(Huffington Post - Daniel Tencer)  - Attitude and Preference Issues
There is an answer, but to get to it, you have to learn the same uncomfortable lesson that the head of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (and some of us who write about economics) learned this year. And that lesson is that we are living in an illusion created by central bank money-printing and profligate government spending. If house prices seem detached from reality, it’s because they are.
Banks may have to brace for heavy losses as commercial property prices plunge
(CNBC - Weizhen Tan)  - Risk Management Issues
During the 2008 great financial crisis, for example, such loan losses accounted for between 25% and 30% of total loan write-offs in the U.S.

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